The “Poll” Vault Part II – Picking Up the Pieces of the First Debates

It was Donald Trump’s debate to lose, and he lost the first Republican debate in a big way- both tactically and effectively. Right at the onset, when moderator Brett Baier asked if there was anyone who would not pledge to “support the eventual nominee, no matter who that person ends up being, nor rule out a third-party run”, Donald Trump raised his hand, much to the dismay of the audience gathered in Cleveland. When Baier asked him to confirm this, with the understanding that a “third party run would effectively elect the Democratic nominee” in 2016, Trump indicated that he knew full well what he was doing- essentially stating that he would only pledge to support the Republican nominee if he himself were that nominee. There was more…much more. Throughout the debate, he was surly, condescending and carried a facial expression which suggested his utter contempt and complete distaste for the debate and its moderators, as well. In doing so, “the Donald” has effectively has de-legitimized himself as a prospective Republican candidate and, more importantly, has exposed the veneer of a would-be candidate who has no depth to his flashy political persona. Based on this, unless he can pull off a miracle, his candidacy will not likely last to the New Hampshire Primary and the Iowa Caucus early next year because as a Republican, he is all but finished.

So who were the winners?

First, some kudos must go to the Fox News moderators who posed very difficult and pointed questions to each of the contenders- specifically challenging each of them to address their own shortcomings to policies and their respective past statements. In essence, nobody got off easy- in either debate. Hillary Clinton can thank her lucky stars she did not have to face these five moderators, as they would have likely ripped her façade to shreds.

Overall, none of the remaining candidates (other than Trump) “blew it” per se, but there were some clear winners- most notably Carly Fiorina in the first debate, whose overall performance was most likely the best all evening. The rest of the candidates in that first debate did okay, but did nothing to really bring up their polling numbers up the way Ms. Fiorina almost certainly will. She was crisp, cool and cerebral in her statements, and seeming flawless in her delivery, without any hint of hesitation or unease. There is no doubt she will climb into the top tier prior to next month’s debate. As a whole, the remaining candidates in that first debate showed that they were competent- but that’s all.

In the second debate, the clear winners were Marco Rubio, whose eye contact and charisma only added to the substance of what he said, Ted Cruz, whose considered statements rang true with honesty and conviction, and Mike Huckabee, whose clarity and specific vision revealed his grasp of the issues discussed. Ben Carson started off poorly, but improved his performance when the debate continued and had a very warm and personable closing statement, that will only serve to endear him to a far greater degree, than when he entered the arena. Jeb Bush and Scott Walker had plausible performances but only managed to do just enough to maintain the number of their supporters, but without adding any, by essentially playing it safe. An exciting exchange took place between Rand Paul and Chris Christie when dealing with the issue of collecting telephone metadata and each surrendered no ground, but Christie won that exchange by only the slimmest of margins. Ironically it won’t help Christie’s standing but, in the final analysis, it did seem to weaken Paul’s position in the field. John Kasich, having a distinct “home field advantage” in the Quicken Loans Arena, did better than expected, but not enough to drastically improve his standing in a crowded field.

All in all, it was an eventful and potentially-consequential evening, in that the front runner has stumbled in a big way. Look for Trump’s numbers to fall and the beneficiaries of this fall will most likely be Rubio, Cruz, Huckabee, Carson and Fiorina, who will be in a position to take on Jeb Bush and Scott Walker for the right to oppose Hillary or, if not, Joe Biden in the general election of 2016.

-Drew Nickell, 7 August 2015

© 2015 by Drew Nickell, all rights reserved