The  “Poll” Vault- a preview of Thursday Night’s Debate-

 

Fifteen months from now, Americans will be casting ballots to determine, on a state-by-state basis, which set of their parties’ electors will select the next President of the United States. In essence, we don’t have a popular election- we have fifty-one separate state elections, which actually and eventually take place in the first week of December, when Electoral College votes are cast, based upon the popular vote in each of the several states and the District of Columbia.

On Thursday night, the sixth of August, the top ten candidates vying for the Republican nomination, based upon an average of five national polls, will be featured in a prime time debate on Fox News- a debate to be moderated by Chris Wallace, Bret Baier and Megyn Kelly. Earlier that evening the remaining seven candidates will have (forgive the term) a junior varsity debate amongst the candidates who failed to make the top ten cut.

While it might not be “fair” to split them up this way, with seventeen candidates running (as of this writing) for the nomination, it’s most likely that this is the only way to manage such a sizable cast of combatants. The die is presumably cast with Chris Christie, John Kasich, Rick Santorum, Rick Perry and Carly Fiorina on the bubble to secure the ninth and tenth spots- giving them the right to join Donald Trump, Jeb Bush, Scott Walker, Ben Carson, Marco Rubio, Ted Cruz, Mike Huckabee and Rand Paul at 9:00 EDT. The remaining candidates, Rick Perry, Bobby Jindal, George Pataki, Lindsay Graham and latecomer Jim Gilmore will have to hash it all out four hours before this prime time “smack-down”, with two of four struggling to secure those all-important ninth and tenth spots.

All eyes will be on the 9:00 debate, primarily motivated by curiosity to see which of “the Donalds” will show up. Will it be the “in-your-face” Trump who can seemingly take on anyone in a heated tete-a-tete, or the “refined and restrained” Trump who can lay back and be “above it all”, while the rest of the field gets into the muckety-muck? Don’t look for Jeb Bush or Scott Walker or Ben Carson to taunt him- after all, these three candidates are hardly the taunting type, and won’t take the risk to fall down further in the polls. Marco Rubio most likely won’t- it’s not his all-too-refined style to do so. Ted Cruz could possibly land a couple of blows, as could Mike Huckabee or Rand Paul, if they are willing to take the risk of doing so. Chris Christie and John Kasich, should they get in, could also wave a Republican red cape in the Donald’s face. Regardless, at this early (and I do mean EARLY) stage, Thursday’s debate is Trump’s to lose and, should he avoid a gaff or not lose his cool, he’ll walk away the winner.

The United States is indeed unique in the way we select a President- perhaps because it is, after all, the world’s most important job. Like everything else American, most notably holidays for example, we have a tendency to overdo things and do them prematurely, which is why essential polling fifteen months before an election seems as absurd as Hallowe’en decorations appearing on August store shelves, and Christmas decorations appearing on October shelves- weeks before Hallowe’en. We are, at long last, a nation of excess, and we seem, politically speaking, to be suffering under the weight of our own excess.

So, to all of the candidates who have “poll-vaulted” their way into this, the first of some seventeen such debates (between candidates of both parties, prior to their respective nominating conventions) may the best of them win, squarely and fairly, assuming such a feat is possible.

I’ll be watching…won’t you?

-Drew Nickell, 4 August 2015

© 2015, by Drew Nickell, all rights reserved