Strategy Revealed- the Democrats’ Platform for the 2018 Election
Looking ahead nine months, practically all of the mainstream media predict a Democrat takeover of the U.S. House of Representatives in this fall’s 2018 mid-term election, as if the balloting has already taken place. They base this prognostication, in part, on historic trends that the party out of power, with regards to the presidency, averages a 25-seat swing in past mid-term elections. With the present balance of power in the House of 239 Republicans and 193 Democrats (3 seats are vacant), and assuming that this average swing holds sway in House elections, this would render a balance of a slim Democrat majority, beginning in 2019, of at least 218 Democrats to 214 Republicans, not counting the three vacancies. Given the number of Republicans in the House, including several GOP committee chairmen who have decided not to run for reelection, prospects would indeed tend to favor the Democrats later this fall…
…that is, except for one thing…the lack of a winning strategy, based on policy.
In past mid-term elections, the party out of power coalesced around a single winning stratagem. In 1994, Republicans flipped the House based upon House Speaker Newt Gingrich’s “Contract with America” which entailed a number of reforms promised by Republicans with regards to fiscal policy, and procedural changes to budgetary voting. In 2006, opposition to wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, united Democrats and enabled the return of Democrats to majorities in both houses. In 2010, opposition to ObamaCare rendered a return to a Republican majority in the House.
Hence, in each case, a winning strategy, based on policy, paved the way for a change in House leadership.
Looking ahead to the 2018 election, what could possibly be a winning strategy, based on policy, for Democrats?
Opposition to border control? Not likely. Most Americans believe in strict border controls to combat the flow of illegal aliens into the United States. Despite attempts by the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals to rein in President Donald Trump’s desire to restrict immigration from countries which cannot ascertain the identity of their own emigres, most Americans believe that the president’s policies designed to make Americans safer are sound, and reject the idea of open borders and unvetted immigrants coming into the United States.
Opposition to the 2017 Tax Reform and Jobs Act? Get real. With lower taxes on corporations, small businesses and most middle-class taxpayers- including the elimination of the unpopular individual mandate in ObamaCare- the number of businesses awarding bonuses to their employees, as well as the meteoric rise in the stock market which benefits everyone with a 401K retirement portfolio, will fend off any criticism from Democrats united in their opposition to this legislation.
Alleged Russian collusion with the Trump campaign? Except for wishful thinking on the part of anti-Trump politicians in both parties, and much of the mainstream media, most Americans believe that the fantasy of Russian collusion is just that- a fantasy proffered to rationalize just how Hillary Clinton lost an election that she was supposed to win. Her own popularity, which has now sunk below that of the president, is hardly a cause around which to structure a winning campaign.
With the economy booming and unemployment sinking, with more money in the pockets of everyday Americans, what’s a Democrat to do?
Simple- make Donald Trump out to be a bad person, and convince the American people that if they return to power, they will impeach the president of the United States. Simply stated, they hope that all of the animus they foment against the president, with help from large sections of the media and even idiotic anti-Trump Republicans like John McCain (R-AZ) and Jeff Flake (R-AZ), will be enough to sweep Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) back into her former role as Speaker of the House. The only problem is that, absent of “high crimes and misdemeanors” as outlined in the Constitution, they cannot impeach a sitting president just because they don’t like him.
Even if they were able to win back the majority in the House, and pass a bill of impeachment, the fact remains that two-thirds of the Senate- 67 senators, would have to vote to convict the president- something that has never been done in the history of the United States. Simply stated, there are not enough stupid Republicans in the U.S. Senate to make that remotely possible- even if the Senate flips along with the House in the 2018 election. Assuming that the Senate does flip- highly unlikely, given the particular third of the Senate seats up for grabs this fall, most agree that the numbers favor Republicans retaining their slim majority.
Despite all of the outcry against Donald Trump, most Americans prefer his policies to that of his predecessor and, along with a robust economy, the last thing Americans would want is a dysfunctional government with a legislature tripping up the president at every turn.
In essence, a strategy of ridding the country of one Donald Trump may be popular with the Democrats’ base, but it won’t be enough to convince voters that such a drastic change, based in sheer hatred of Donald Trump, is desirable enough to give control of the House back to the Democrats…
…but what about the polls which suggest a 12-point edge favoring Democrats over Republicans? Yeah, those same polls once told us that Trump’s election was impossible, while history decided otherwise.
So, while the Democrats and their anti-Trump allies in the media wager all of their marbles on getting rid of Donald Trump, it is those same Democrats and partisan pundits who will end up losing all their marbles, on a losing strategy based in nothing more that sheer hate…
…and that is how Republicans will retain majorities in both houses of congress, as long as they are smart enough not to buy into the conventional wisdom that suggests otherwise.
-Drew Nickell, 18 January 2018
© 2018 by Drew Nickell, all rights reserved.
author of “Bending Your Ear- a Collection of Essays on the Issues of Our Times”
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