Republican Reality Check- the Trump Train and an Exhausted Establishment

Republican Reality Check- the Trump Train and an Exhausted Establishment

What a difference a year makes.

This time, last year, all of the betting money was on Jeb Bush to win the nomination and be the one to face Hillary Clinton, in what was supposed to be Bush vs Clinton, part deux, the sequel to 1992 (I am so glad I didn’t take part in that wager).

While the former Florida governor returns to the Sunshine State, licking his wounds from the brutal beatings brought on by his one-time protégé, Marco Rubio, and his tormenteureuse terrible, Donald Trump, a new reality is slowly sinking in for the Republican Party. The GOP once thought it knew everything needed to be known about conservatism and what it means to be a Republican. As it turns out, the Republican Party did not know “spit.”

All of its mainstream, moderate, go-along-with, get-along-with candidates have either dropped out of the race altogether, or are fighting over the paltry crumbs left on the table by their conservative counterparts. While partisan purists will continue to quibble over whether or not Donald Trump is truly conservative, the fact is undeniable that Mr. Trump has captured much of the conservative base by voicing that on which true conservatives all agree- the border between Mexico and the United States must be sealed, immigration laws must be enforced, and there must be a temporary ban on Muslim immigration, until such time as these refugees can be thoroughly and properly vetted. All of the Republican moderates opposing these stances have failed, utterly failed, to gain the requisite support needed to win the Republican nomination. Therein lies the lesson first taught by one Dave Brat, a Tea Party outsider who trounced Eric Cantor in June of 2014, to win the Republican nomination for Cantor’s seat in the House of Representatives. That lesson is simple: “Stop listening to your base and you do so at your own peril.”

The reason that the quest for the Republican nomination has come down to a three-man race between Donald Trump, Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz, is that these three candidates are listening to the conservative base of the Republican Party…something that Gerald Ford failed to do in 1976, something that George H.W. Bush failed to do in 1992, something that Bob Dole failed to do in 1996, something that John McCain failed to do in 2008, and something that Mitt Romney failed to do in 2012. Because Messrs. Trump, Rubio and Cruz are listening to the conservative base, each of them has an equally good chance of defeating Hillary Clinton in November- provided their Republican Party begins to listen as well, and rallies around to support whoever ultimately wins the nomination. As things stand right now, given his solid victories in New Hampshire and South Carolina, and his likely victory in Nevada on Tuesday, that candidate is most likely going to be Donald Trump, whose train is steaming towards the nomination at breakneck speed.

While John Kasich and Ben Carson remain in the race, neither of them has any chance to be on the Republican ticket, other than as a running mate to Trump, Rubio or Cruz.

What the mainstream, moderate go-along-with, get along-with Republican establishment, so exhausted in their attempt to define a race now spun out of their own control, needs to do is to decide on whether to unite in opposition to Hillary Clinton’s campaign, or set afire what is left to the Republican Party by staying home and pouting once again, that they didn’t get their way.

In unity, there is victory, and in division, there is only defeat.

That is the reality check facing Republicans in 2016.

 

-Drew Nickell, 21 February 2016

 

© 2016 by Drew Nickell, all rights reserved.