The Trump Card- A Preview of the Second GOP Debate
On Wednesday evening, September 16th, at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library in Simi Valley, California, CNN will be hosting the second GOP Presidential Debate. Participating in the main event will be, alphabetically, Jeb Bush, Ben Carson, Chris Christie, Ted Cruz, Carly Fiorina, Mike Huckabee, John Kasich, Rand Paul, Marco Rubio, Donald Trump, and Scott Walker. The night’s opener will consist of the rest of the remaining field- Lindsay Graham, Bobby Jindal, George Pataki and Rick Santorum, as Jim Gilmore failed to qualify for the preliminary round, and Rick Perry dropped from the race, early last week.
Carly Fiorina’s stellar performance in the last debate’s opener, led to her anticipated advancement to the varsity round. Barring any surprise in Wednesday’s preliminary round, or an unexpected and utter collapse by one of the candidates in the night’s main event, those participating in the first round are not likely to follow Fiorina’s footsteps to the upper level. By the time October’s third debate rolls around, a shortfall of campaign funding will have likely winnowed the entire field by a couple more candidates, at least, and our guess is that only ten candidates will remain in the GOP field by year’s end.
Looming large in the main event will be the following:
Donald Trump- Now that “the Donald” has signed the pledge to support the eventual GOP nominee, and thereby forego an independent run should he not win the eventual GOP nod, will he show more or less bravado in his performance, or will he (excuse the analogy) “step in it”, so to speak, and reverse his rise in the polls? More to the point, will any of the aforementioned contingencies matter?
Jeb Bush- Given the degree to which his poll numbers are shrinking, the former Florida Governor is just about a half dozen yawns from being obliterated by the flashy front-runner. Will Bush risk credibility and become more feisty towards Trump, or will he come across as the policy wonk and take on further attributes of a wannabe who, in the final analysis, never was, despite being the early-odds favorite of the political class?
Carly Fiorina- Will the lone lady in a crowded field continue to impress with her steady and cerebral candor, and enable her poll numbers to rival that of Dr. Carson? Will she now go for broke and take on “the Donald” before a nationally televised audience?
Ben Carson- Will he continue to be the suave and debonair gentleman in the room, by charming viewers with his calming and measured demeanor, or will he cast off his courtly manner, and thereby provoke “the Donald” into a faux pas of consequential proportions?
Then, again, there’s this- or, alternatively speaking, the others in the mix. Will Chris Christie have another dust up with Rand Paul, as they did in the last debate, and will one knock the other off of the top tier? Will Cruz, Huckabee, Kasich, or Rubio turn in a much-needed strong debate performance to substantively change their standing in the polls, and will they be afforded the opportunity to do so, by the CNN panel of questioners? Will Scott Walker resuscitate his campaign from what seemingly seems to be his journey into the land of irrelevance?
Lastly, will there be anywhere near as large an audience watching this debate, as there was in the last debate. Here is a prediction- the larger the audience, the more consequential the effect on the respective candidacies, for better or for worse… Regardless, another deck of cards is about to be dealt, and we’ll see if a whole new…ahem…TRUMP card will be played…
-Drew Nickell, 14 September 2015
© 2015 by Drew Nickell, all rights reserved